Paxton slips past Talarico in latest poll as Senate race enters final days

Published October 30, 2026 11:55 AM CDT

A new poll has found that Republican Ken Paxton has moved past Democrat James Talarico as the race for U.S. Senate enters its final days.

The poll by Quantus Insights surveyed 1,221 likely voters between Oct. 26 and 28. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

Republicans made up the majority of respondents at 46.7%, with Democrats comprising 39.4% of respondents and Independents at 13.9%.

Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2026.

Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for U.S. Senate in Texas in 2026. (FOX 4)

Texas Senate race is a dead heat

The Quantus poll found that 48.7% of respondents backed Paxton, while 47.6% backed Talarico. Only 2.2% of respondents said they were undecided.

According to the poll, Talarico holds the lead with women, independents and Hispanic voters. Paxton leads among men, suburban and rural voters.

Both candidates have been crisscrossing the state this week, while polls have consistently showed one of the narrowest margins in a Texas Senate race in decades.

When can I vote?

Early voting in Texas ends at 7 p.m. Friday. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day, which is Tuesday.

Related

Texas voting guide: Here's what you should know as early voting ends

Early voting for the November election in Texas ends Friday. If you don't cast a ballot during early voting, you'll be able to head to the polls on Election Day. 

The Source: Information in this story came from Quantus Insights polling and previous FOX Local reporting.

ElectionKen PaxtonTexasPolitics2026 ElectionsNewsTexas PoliticsU.S. Senate