Talarico leads Paxton among younger Texas voters, new poll shows

Published October 8, 2026 11:49 AM CDT

Younger voters are propelling Democrat James Talarico into the lead in his U.S. Senate campaign against Republican Ken Paxton.

Younger voters choose Talarico

By the numbers:

In a YouGov poll, around two-thirds of voters ages 18–29 (69%) and ages 30–44 (62%) said they were voting for Talarico. Only 27% and 34%, respectively, said they were supporting Paxton. Voters between the ages of 45 and 64 were more split on the race, with 46% siding with Talarico and 48% for Paxton. More than half of voters age 65 and above (55%) said they were voting for Paxton, while 38% said they supported Talarico.

Overall, Talarico led the poll by six points over Paxton, 50% to 44%, with 2% saying they would vote for someone else, 3% undecided and 1% of those polled saying they would not vote.

Are voters locked in to their choices?

The poll also asked voters who made a choice if they would consider another candidate.

Among voters who said they were voting for Talarico, 3% said there was a chance they could change their minds and vote for Paxton.

Paxton voters were also mostly locked in on their candidate, with 4% saying they would consider voting for Talarico.

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Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.

How do Texans view Democrats and Republicans, Trump?

Big picture view:

Voters were asked their overall feelings about the Democratic and Republican parties and both were viewed unfavorably. 

Two-thirds of those polled had a neutral or worse view of the Democratic Party, with 11% holding a neutral opinion, 12% viewing the party as somewhat unfavorable and 44% saying they held a very unfavorable opinion of the party. Just 15% of those asked said they held a "very favorable" view of the Democratic Party.

On the Republican side, 43% said they viewed the party as "very unfavorable," while 10% said their views were "somewhat unfavorable" and 6% held a neutral view. More voters (22%) viewed the party as "very favorable" compared to Democrats.

Texans were split on their opinion of Donald Trump's handling of the presidency, with 44% approving of the job he's doing and 56% saying they disapprove.

The YouGov poll was conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5 and polled 3,625 registered Texas voters and has a 3% margin of error.

The Source: Information in this article comes from a YouGov poll conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 5 and polled 3,625 registered Texas voters and has a 3% margin of error.

TexasPolitics2026 ElectionsTexas PoliticsKen Paxton