Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate poll

Published September 22, 2026 11:59 AM CDT

Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX Local)

The latest poll from Texas Southern University shows Democrat James Talarico holding onto a narrow one-point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race to become Texas' next senator.

Talarico holds lead in U.S. Senate race

By the numbers:

Talarico holds a 47% to 46% lead over Paxton with 3% of voters supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 4% remaining undecided with 41 days until election day.

The Texas Southern poll asked 1,800 likely voters between Sept. 15 and Sept. 19, and had a margin of error of +/- 2.31%.

Both candidates had a net negative unfavorability rating among those surveyed. 

Talarico was viewed favorably by 47% of voters and unfavorably by 50%, while Paxton was viewed favorably by 43% of voters and unfavorably by 55%. The remaining 3% and 2%, respectively, said they did not know enough about the candidate to have an opinion of them.

Some Republicans say they'll vote for Talarico

Dig deeper:

While 99% of Democrats said they would vote for Talarico, just 84% of Republicans said they would vote for Paxton.

Among the other Republicans, 7% said they would vote for Talarico, 4% for Brown and 5% were undecided.

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Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker

Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.

Who leads in other statewide Texas races?

Big picture view:

The poll also asked about other statewide races, including governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

  • In the Texas governor's race, Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45%, with 2% planning to support Libertarian Pat Dixon.
  • Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (47%) leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin (41%) by six percentage points in his quest for reelection, with 2% supporting Libertarian Anthony Cristo, 1% supporting Green Party candidate Kevin McCormick and 9% undecided.
  • The Texas Attorney General race sees Republican Mayes Middleton with a 5-point lead over Democrat Nathan Johnson, 47% to 42%, with 2% supporting Libertarian Tom Oxford and 9% undecided.
  • Republican Don Huffines (47%) leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt (38%) by eight points in the race for state Comptroller. Two percent of voters said they would support Libertarian V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza, 1% would support the Green Party's Shela Faizi and 11% remain undecided.
  • In the race for Texas Land Commissioner, Republican Dawn Buckingham (47%) leads Democrat Benjamin Flores (39%) by 8 points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Neill Snider and 12% undecided.
  • Republican Nate Sheets (45%) leads Democrat Clayton Tucker (39%) by 6 points, with 2% supporting Libertarian Austin Kelly and 14% undecided in the race for Texas Agriculture Commissioner.
  • The race for Texas Railroad Commissioner, Republican Bo French (44%) leads Democrat Jon Rosenthal (42%) by 2 percentage points, with 3% supporting Libertarian Arthur DiBianca and 11% undecided.

The Source: Information in this article comes from a survey conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center and Texas Southern University survey of 1,800 likely Texas voters between Sept. 15 and Sept. 19, and had a margin of error of +/- 2.31%.

TexasPoliticsTexas PoliticsKen Paxton2026 Elections