Major 2026 hurricane forecast updated: What it says about Texas

HOUSTON - One of the most-watched hurricane forecasts has been updated for the remainder of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Colorado State University released its revised forecast Wednesday, and it now calls for a "well below-normal season." 

By the numbers:

Forecasters are now calling for nine named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Those numbers were lowered from their forecast issued June 10 of 11 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

The updated forecast has also lowered the chances of a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast – from Brownsville, Texas, to the Florida Panhandle. In June, the forecast had a 20% chance of a hurricane making landfall in the region. The updated forecast now calls for a 10% chance.

What they're saying:

CSU forecasters cited an intensifying El Niño as one of the factors for the adjustment.

"We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear," forecasters wrote in Wednesday’s update.

Dig deeper:

So far, there has only been one named storm this year. Tropical Storm Arthur impacted the Texas coast in June.

According to the National Hurricane Center, no tropical activity is expected in the Atlantic for at least the next week.

The next named storm would be Bertha, followed by Cristobal and Dolly.

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