Latest COVID-19 forecast shows North Texas hospitalizations down 15%, continued downward trend
Latest COVID-19 forecast shows North Texas hospitalizations down 15%, continued downward trend
COVID-19 hospitalizations continue to decline with more very promising news from the latest research forecast.
DALLAS - COVID-19 hospitalizations continue to decline with more very promising news from the latest research forecast.
This week's UT Southwestern Medical Center report says hospitalizations are down 14% in Dallas County and 15% in Tarrant County over the past two weeks. That trend is expected to continue over the next several weeks.
While still high, hospitalizations in the North Texas region are at 2,600. However, they are down significantly from the delta variant high of nearly 3,600 earlier this month.
Pediatric patient numbers are down more than 50% overall from the high earlier this month
There’s been a big change from August to now. The question is if this is another drop in the pandemic rollercoaster or if cases will continue to decline.
This time last month, North Texas was in the middle of the new COVID surge fueled by the delta variant. Hospital staffing was stressed. Some set up overflow tents. There were no pediatric ICU beds available.
But it was also when modeling or forecasting projected the tide would turn in September. Those forecasts are now a reality.
North Texas hospitalizations peaked at nearly 3,600 patients earlier this month.
There’s been a sizable drop to 2,600 COVID patients as of Tuesday, the lowest since Aug. 12.
Dr. Peter Hotez is dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston.
"It’s been going like this over the last few weeks," he said. "Now, you are seeing a decline, but it’s pretty slow."
Dr. Hotez says there are multiple factors that played a role in this new decline, aside from an increase in some masking and vaccinations. That includes a decreasing risk pool. But he cautions just because someone has recently been infected, in his opinion, does not mean natural immunity is better.
"The bottom line is if you are infected and recovered, you still want to get vaccinated. And if you do, that has a really good impact," he said. "Because if you are infected, recovered and vaccinated, you seem to have really good levels of the virus neutralizing and really resilient against the variants."
The latest UT Southwestern model shows in Dallas and Tarrant counties, hospitalizations dropped around 15% in the last two weeks.
The latest COVID forecast also predicts a continued decline in almost all age groups.
Pediatric cases also have been a concern. Currently, there are 60 pediatric COVID patients in North Texas. A few weeks ago, the pandemic high was 131.
Dr. Marcial Oquendo works in pediatrics in Dallas and is with the Dallas County Medical Society.
"The numbers of kids who had COVID in schools went up quickly," he said. "And then it started to go down, which means there's a pool of people who could get exposed and had it that have already gone through it."
There does not appear to be a bump in community spread from Labor Day and other activities like football games and concerts.
Dr. Hotez says 6,000 Texans died during the summer surge and expects another spike in cases again in the winter.
"We just got through the eye of the hurricane. But guess what? There’s more in store for us," he said. "Even though it is starting to go down, we still have a ways to go. No cause for celebration. And if you aren't vaccinated, you need to still do it."