New poll shows Talarico leading Crockett in Democratic Senate primary
A January poll shows state Rep. James Talarico (left) leading Rep. Jasmine Crockett (right) in the 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Talarico Photographer: Mark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images Crocket Photographer: Jason Fochtman/Houston Chro (Getty Images)
A recent poll shows state Rep. James Talarico leading Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the race to become the Democratic nominee for November's U.S. Senate election. That same poll shows a near toss-up between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and current incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
The poll, conducted earlier this month by Emerson College, surveyed 1,165 registered Texas voters shows that the Republican primary could head to a runoff with no candidate polling above 50%.
Poll shows Talarico leading Crockett in the March primary
By the numbers:
Among likely Democratic primary voters, Talarico holds a nine-point lead over Crockett, 47% to 38%.
"Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett," Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said. "Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett."
Republicans in a tight race for nomination
What they're saying:
"Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided. With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May," Kimball noted.
Paxton leads Cornyn in the poll, 37% to 36%. Wesley Hunt polled at 16%. The poll shows 29% of likely Republican primary voters were still undecided on which candidate they would support.
Who has the edge in hypothetical November matchups?
Big picture view:
Emerson College's poll shows the U.S. Senate seat is likely to remain in Republican hands come November with all three Republican candidates holding an edge over the Democratic candidates.
Matchups involving Talarico show Cornyn leading 47% to 44% with 9% of probable voters undecided. The race is more of a toss-up between Talarico and Paxton with both candidates polling at 46%, with 9% undecided. Hunt also holds an edge over Talarico, 47% to 44%, with 9% undecided.
The numbers are similar for matchups involving Crockett. Cornyn leads the hypothetical showdown 48% to 43% with 9% undecided. Paxton and Crockett are in a dead heat with both polling at 46% support with 9% undecided. Those polled also supported Hunt over Crockett, 48% to 43%, with 9% undecided.
What issues are Texans concerned about?
Emerson College also asked voters what they felt were the most important issues in the state.
The poll showed 28% of voters were concerned about the economy. That's a 2% decrease from a similar poll in August 2025.
More Texans were worried about threats to democracy in January, with 17% citing that as the most important issue. That number is up 2% from August.
Worries about immigration fell the most between August and January, going from 21% to 14%. Housing affordability saw the biggest jump, rising 3% from 5% to 8%. Texans said they were also worried about healthcare and education.
How do Texans feel about the job President Trump and Gov. Abbott are doing?
Emerson College asked those polled how they felt about the jobs President Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott were doing.
Trump has a 48% approval rating among Texas voters, and 46% disapproval.
Abbott's approval is split at 47% approve and disapprove.
Looking at the 2026 governor election, polling found 50% of voters supporting Abbott, while 42% supported state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, with 8% of voters being undecided.
Emerson College's poll was conducted Jan. 10-12, 2026 and has a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.
The Source: Information in this article comes from a poll conducted by Emerson College surveying Texas voters.