Talarico, Paxton in dead heat in latest Texas Senate poll

Published September 17, 2026 11:40 AM CDT

Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX Local)

The latest polling in Texas' pivotal U.S. Senate race shows a dead heat between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton.

Dead heat in the U.S. Senate race

By the numbers:

The September Emerson College poll shows a one-point lead for Talarico over Paxton, 47% to 46%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown had the support of 2% of those polled and 4% were undecided.

The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from Sept. 12–14 and has a margin of error of +/- 3%.

Big picture view:

The Emerson poll is one of the closest polls released recently. Recent polls from AARP Texas and Univison have given Talarico a lead of 4% and 5% respectively. An Emerson poll from August showed Paxton with a 1% lead.

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Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker

Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.

Did the Republican midterm convention excite voters?

Dig deeper:

A majority of both major parties said the Republican midterm convention made them excited to vote in November.

Among Republicans, 59% said they were more excited to vote after the convention, while 39% said it had no impact and 2% were now less excited to vote.

On the Democratic side, 53% said the GOP convention made them more excited to vote, while 45% said it had no impact and 2% said they were less excited to vote in November.

Notably, 68% of independent voters said the event made no impact on their excitement to vote, while 28% said it made them more excited and 3% said it made them less excited to vote in November.

Democrats and Republicans agree on Texas' top issue

What they're saying:

Democrats and Republicans agree on what they feel is the biggest issue facing the Lone Star State ahead of the midterm elections: the economy.

Of those surveyed, 38% of Republicans and 37% of Democrats said the economy was the top issue facing the state. Thirty percent of independent voters also cited the economy as the state's top issue.

Immigration (14%), education (12%), healthcare (11%) and threats to democracy (11%) were the other top issues for voters.

Hinojosa's support increases, still trails Abbott

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa's support among Texans increased one point, from 45% to 46% since the August Emerson poll. Her incumbent opponent, Gov. Greg Abbott's support remained steady at 49%. Libertarian Pat Dixon garnered 2% of voters' support, while 4% remain undecided.

The Source: Information in this article comes from a September poll released by Emerson College asking Texas voters about the U.S. Senate and governor races in the state.

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