Expert weighs-in on Texas Senate race between Cornyn and Paxton

Expert on Cornyn vs Paxton in Texas Senate race

Texas Senator John Cornyn faces a strong primary challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, who leads in polls despite Cornyn's fundraising advantage, with a potential Trump endorsement and Angela Paxton's divorce proceedings being key factors, according to SMU political science professor Cal Jillson.

Veteran Texas Senator John Cornyn faces a challenging primary battle against Attorney General Ken Paxton, signaling a fierce Republican showdown months before the mid-term elections.

What we know:

Texas Senator John Cornyn is chairing the subcommittee hearing on what is called ‘Biden's Border Betrayal’.

But could one of the most successful politicians in Texas history, with a voting record that puts him as the second most conservative republican in the senate, be knocked out in the mid-term primary by his opponent, Attorney General Ken Paxton?

Republican face-off

What they're saying:

"We're here today to remind the public of the real tragedy of President Biden's open border policy. The hundreds of victims of criminal, illegal aliens that could have been avoided if the laws on the books had simply been enforced," said Cornyn.

Since Paxton entered the race, SMU political science professor, Cal Jillson, says Cornyn's been trying to show his deep red stripes even after more than 20 years in the senate.

"Right now, you would consider Paxton the favorite, but Cornyn is a long-time effective insider within the Republican Party in Washington," said Jillson.

"The world changes, the Republican Party changes and if he doesn't change with it from a sort of Bush-business-friendly to more Trump social conservative MAGA, he'll be left behind."

While the mid-term elections are months away, Senator Cornyn has almost four times more money in his campaign coffers than Paxton's political purse. But the Attorney General continues to have a double-digit lead in the polls over the incumbent Cornyn.

Endorsement battle

Dig deeper:

"What remains outstanding is a Trump endorsement and a Trump endorsement might well carry either of these two candidates across the finish line, so they're both lusting after that endorsement," said Jillson.

Jillson says there is one other voice in Texas that might matter to GOP primary voters.

 "Angela Paxton still has a vote in this race," she said. "Whether she will support her husband whom she has started divorce proceedings from...remain a silent partner.... or openly back Cornyn in his re-election bid." 

A Republican primary that will see these two political fighters face each other.

"These are two different kinds of fighters. I think Paxton is going to be swinging for the fences. Whereas John Cornyn is more of a puncher, he's going to win it on rounds rather than a knockout if he wins it at all."