Talarico continues to lead polls as spending ramps up in Texas Senate race
Ken Paxton (left) and James Talarico. (Getty Images)
The U.S. Senate race in Texas is shaping up to be the most expensive Senate race of all time as polling shows Democrat James Talarico extending his lead over Republican Ken Paxton.
By the numbers:
The latest poll from the New York Times and Siena Research Institute shows Talarico leads Paxton by six points, 51% to 45%, with two weeks to go before early voting begins. The two were tied at 47% in the same poll from June.
The poll also asked which candidate they felt would be better at the following:
- Being an effective senator: Talarico 51%, Paxton 44%
- Data centers: Talarico 50%, Paxton 42%
- Cost of living: Talarico 52%, Paxton 42%
- Doing what's best for ordinary Texans: Talarico 55%, Paxton 40%
- Health care: Talarico 53%, Paxton 41%
- Tariffs: Talarico 52%, Paxton 43%
- Immigration: Talarico 48%, Paxton 48%
Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker
Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.
Voters feel Texas is headed in the wrong direction
Big picture view:
The poll numbers come as 46% of those polled said Texas was heading in the wrong direction, 41% said it was on the right track and 12% either said they did not know or they did not answer.
Voters also said they were supporting other Democrats in the Lone Star State as well.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa leads Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by three points, 49% to 46%, with 5% undecided. In June, Hinojosa trailed Abbott by six points, 45% to 51%.
Voters also said they were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate running in their U.S. House district, 47% to 45%.
The new numbers come as more Texans say they do not approve of the way President Donald Trump is doing his job.
Disapproval increased 5% from June to September, with 57% saying they disapprove of how Trump is handling the job of president compared to 52% in June.
Texas Senate race among most expensive races of all time
With just under a month to go before election day, the Texas Senate race is already one of the most expensive non-presidential races of all time.
Advertising spending in the race has reached $442 million, making it the second most expensive non-presidential race on record, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Republicans are outspending Democrats in the campaign, $326 million to $116 million.
The Source: Information on the Texas Senate race comes from a New York Times and Siena Research poll of 615 Texas voters Sept. 21-30. The survey has a 4.5% margin of error. Information on advertising spending in the senate race comes from AdImpact on social media.