Texas Senate race: Talarico holds razor-thin lead over Paxton in latest poll
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HOUSTON - Democrat James Talarico holds a small lead over Republican Ken Paxton as their heated Senate race enters the final stretch.
About the poll:
The poll conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston surveyed 2,000 likely Texas voters between Oct. 10 and 14. It has a margin of error of +/- 2.9%. Republicans made up 42% of respondents in the poll, while Democrats made up 31% and independents made up 23%.
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Razor-thin margin
By the numbers:
According to the poll, Talarico had 48% of voters while Paxton had 46%. Libertarian Ted Brown had 3% of voters and another 3% said they were undecided.
As expected, a majority of Democrats support Talarico and a majority of Republicans support Paxton. However, Talarico had 60% of independents to Paxton’s 32%.
Favorability shows Talarico also holds a six-point lead over Paxton – 47% to 41%.
Dissatisfaction with direction of country, Texas
Dig deeper:
A majority of those who were surveyed said they believe things are headed in the wrong direction in both the nation and in Texas.
The split in the direction question was primarily along partisan lines, according to the poll. More than 90% of Democrats believe things are headed in the wrong direction in the U.S. and Texas. About 80% of Republicans believe things are headed in the right direction.
Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker
Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.
When can I vote?
What's next:
Early voting is underway in Texas and ends Oct. 30. Election Day is Nov. 3.
The Source: Information in this story came from a poll released by the University of Houston on Oct. 20, 2026.