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New poll gives Talarico slight lead over Paxton, shows governor’s race tied

By
FOX Local
Texas
Published July 31, 2026 12:16 PM CDT
Published July 31, 2026 12:16 PM CDT
article

The Brief

    • James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51% to 48% in a new Fox News poll of Texas voters.
    • Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa are virtually tied, 50% to 49%.
    • Both races remain within the poll’s 3-point margin of error, with many voters open to changing their minds.

A new poll from FOX News shows Democratic candidate James Talarico with a slight advantage over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a contentious Senate race that remains extremely close as November inches closer.

The poll also found Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Gina Hinojosa in a dead heat in the race to lead the Lone Star State.

Talarico leads Paxton in Fox News poll

In the poll, conducted July 23–26, 51% of those polled said they planned to vote for Talarico in November, while 48% put their support behind Paxton.

The numbers are closer compared to a poll published earlier this week by Texas Public Opinion Research that showed the Austin Democrat with a five-point lead.

The Fox News poll showed plenty of room for a shift in support for both candidates, with 19% of those who said they would vote for Talarico open to the idea of changing their mind, while 22% of Paxton supporters said they were open to changing their support.

While both candidates garnered strong support as candidates, at least a third of voters on either side said they made their choice as a vote against the other candidate.

Nearly half of voters polled (47%) said they felt Talarico was too extreme to serve as Senator, with 25% saying they were "extremely concerned."

More than half (59%) of those polled said they felt Paxton lacked the moral character to be a U.S. Senator, with 33% saying they were "extremely concerned."

Governor's race is a dead heat

Fox's polling also showed a dead heat in the governor's race.

Abbott supporters made up 50% of those polled, while 49% of those polled said they supported Hinojosa.

The poll shows a closer contest than a poll from Texas Public Opinion Research, which showed Abbott held a three-point lead. 

The poll surveyed 1,006 Texas registered voters and was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw and Company Research. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3%.

The Source: Information in this article comes from a Fox News poll conducted July 23-27, 2026, of 1,006 registered Texas voters.

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