New Texas polls show a tight Senate race between Talarico and Paxton
Two recent polls show Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate, though both results are within their individual margins of error.
2 recent polls show an advantage for Talarico
Texas Democrats' research group 254 Labs on Thursday released polling that shows Talarico with a three-point lead, 48% to 45%, over Paxton. The poll was conducted July 15–31 and surveyed 1,001 registered voters. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.
The survey found Talarico has the advantage over Paxton when it comes to independent voters, 57% to 23%. Around 20% of independent voters polled said they were still undecided on the race.
A Texas Pulse poll, released Friday by Texas A&M Bush School and ReconMR shows similar results with Talarico leading Paxton by four points, 47% to 43%. The same poll showed the two in a dead heat in June.
ReconMR senior research analyst Lindsey Hendren said the shift towards Talarico was likely tied to independent voters choosing to support Talarico.
What they're saying:
"The movement over the last two months is largely seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Talarico by 23 points, 53-30%, up from 14 points, 50-36%, in June," Hendren said.
The poll also shows women voters prefer Talarico by 13% over Paxton. That lead has increased by four points since June.
Talarico also closed the gap with male voters. In June's poll, Paxton held a 10-point lead over Talarico among male voters. That lead has fallen to just 6%.
"Talarico leads by wide margins in the Austin and Dallas/Ft. Worth regions, while Paxton has a large lead in the rural parts of the state, and the Houston and San Antonio regions are currently very closely divided," Hendren said.
Who do Texans prefer on the issues?
Voters said that Talarico would do a better job than Paxton on making prices more affordable (51-38%), keeping Texans safe (50-43%) and managing the water supply in Texas (49-39%).
Paxton leads Talarico on the issue of securing the U.S.-Mexico border, 48-44%.
Those polled said they felt Talarico was in touch with Texas values, authentic, not corrupt and honest. A majority of voters, however, did not think he was tough.
Voters do think Paxton is tough. They also said he was corrupt and not honest, authentic or in touch with Texas values.
The Texas Pulse is a collaborative, nonpartisan initiative between ReconMR, Texas A&M Bush School and Siena Research Institute. The poll was conducted July 27-30 and surveyed 619 likely Texas voters with a margin of error of 5.5%.
The Source: Information in this article comes from polls released by 254 Labs and Texas Pulse.