Paxton, Talarico tied in Texas Senate race: FOX News poll

Published October 22, 2026 11:01 AM CDT

The hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is even, according to a FOX News poll.

The poll surveyed 1,398 likely Texas voters between Oct. 15 and 19, and has a margin of error of +/- 2.5%. It’s a larger sample than the 881 likely Texas voters FOX News surveyed in September, which had a margin of error of +/-3%.

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Paxton, Talarico tied in Senate race

By the numbers:

According to the data, both Paxton and Talarico got 49% of respondents with 1% saying they don’t know.

That’s a shift down for Talarico, who had 51% in the September poll. Paxton’s percentage was unchanged between the two samples.

The most-recent FOX News poll found that Paxton’s support has grown by a point with both men and women since September, while Talarico’s support has dropped by a point with men and by two points with women.

Talarico holds a much larger lead over Paxton in the favorability category with 49% of respondents saying they had a favorable opinion of him. Paxton got a favorable rating with 41% of respondents. 

Abbott leads Hinojosa in Texas governor’s race in poll

Dig deeper:

The most recent FOX News poll found that incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holds a lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa in the Texas governor’s race.

Abbott, who is seeking a historic fourth term in the state’s top office, got 52% in the poll, while Hinojosa got 47%.

The poll found that 7% of Talarico supporters said they plan to split their ticket to vote for Abbott. Compare that to 2% of Paxton supporters who said they plan to vote for Hinojosa.

Texas outlawed straight-ticket voting in 2017.

When can I vote?

What's next:

Early voting is underway in Texas and ends Oct. 30. Election Day is Nov. 3.

The Source: Information in this story came from a FOX News poll released Wednesday and previous FOX Local reporting.

Election2026 ElectionsTexas PoliticsU.S. SenateNewsKen PaxtonPoliticsTexas