Cornyn, Paxton in dead heat in U.S. Senate primary, latest poll shows

A new poll shows Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton in a dead heat for the 2026 U.S. Senate Republican Primary.

Nearly 500 Texas Republican primary voters were polled between Monday and Tuesday with 30% saying they supported Cornyn and 29% saying they supported Paxton. The poll from Emerson College also showed plenty of opportunity for both candidates, with 37% of those polled saying they were undecided in the race.

2026 Senate primaries

The new poll shows a stark shift in voters, who have polled overwhelmingly in favor of Paxton since he announced his campaign.

What they're saying:

"Seven months ahead of the Republican Primary, the contest between the four-term incumbent and the Attorney General is a toss-up, with 37% of voters still undecided," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. "Among these undecided voters, President Trump’s job approval stands at 73%, suggesting his endorsement could be pivotal in such a close race."

The National Republican Senatorial Committee called the latest poll a shift in the race.

"Private and internal data has shown positive movement for John Cornyn, and this public poll confirms that the race is tightening," NRSC Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez said. "As we have always said, when voters tune in and learn about Ken Paxton's record the race will shift."

By the numbers:

In a broader survey of 1,000 Texans, both Republican candidates held leads over the current top Democratic candidate, Colin Allred, in a hypothetical November 2026 showdown. Cornyn leads Allred, 45% to 38%, while Paxton's lead is a more narrow, 46% to 41%.

Among the announced candidates, Allred leads the Democrats with 58%, and 34% undecided.

Texas redistricting polling

Emerson College also polled voters about their feelings on Texas redistricting.

When asked if voters support or oppose redrewing the state's congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, 36% supported the idea, 38% opposed the idea and 26% said they were unsure.

The numbers were more divisive within the parties with 58% of Republicans supporting the measure and 70% of Democrats opposed to a new map.

Texas voters were also split about Democrats who left the state to avoid a vote of redistricting.

Forty-one percent of voters said Democrats should be arrested for leaving the state, while 37% disagreed and 22% were neutral.

"Majorities of both Cornyn and Paxton primary voters believe legislators should be arrested, though the sentiment is 11 points higher among Paxton voters (79%) than among Cornyn voters (68%)," Kimball said.

See the full poll results here.