John Cornyn and Ken Paxton (Getty Images)
HOUSTON - In a new poll ahead of the May 26 runoff for U.S. Senate, Texans appear to be leaning slightly toward four-term incumbent John Cornyn for their Republican nominee.
The new numbers from coefficient.org show Cornyn carrying a single-point lead against Texas AG Ken Paxton. Cornyn is polling at 44% to Paxton's 43%, with 13% being undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.07%.
The poll was conducted via text responses and phone call interviews between April 11 and 14 among 1,143 likely Republican voters.
Trump endorsement wouldn't be enough to bridge Cornyn’s gap with Paxton, new data shows
A new poll shows Attorney General Ken Paxton with a large lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn ahead of the May Senate runoff between the two that even an endorsement from President Donald Trump would not help overcome.
Senate May runoff: Republican types and genders
Of those polled, the group found that Paxton did the best among supporters of President Donald Trump, Christians and male respondents. Cornyn did better among fiscal Republicans, traditional conservatives and female respondents.
While the divide between genders was equally slim on both sides, the gap was much larger for the Republican types. Paxton appears to dominate those in the Trump camp as well as Christians, holding a double-digit lead on both fronts. Cornyn, meanwhile, performed similarly in the other categories, with a blowout result among traditionalists particularly.
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Senate May runoff: Generations and education level
Cornyn performed best among people younger than 55 and older than 65, as well as those who earned a college degree. Paxton did better in the 55-64 age range, as well as those with no higher education.
Most subcategories here were fairly close, though one in particular was weighted heavily toward the attorney general. Paxton holds a 19-point lead for respondents aged 55-64, with 54% to Cornyn's 35%. Cornyn's largest base here, the 65+ crowd, gave him only a 5% lead over Paxton.
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Senate May runoff: Ethnicities
The poll measured only white, Hispanic and "other race" for the poll results. White respondents were split down the middle, while Hispanics appeared to favor Cornyn and all others were weighted towards Paxton.
Hispanics gave Cornyn a 10% lead, though the other races polled gave Paxton 21% more support. Notably, 32% of other races were undecided.
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Senate May runoff: Geographical location
Those polled in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, Austin and suburban and urban areas were weighted towards Cornyn. Those in Houston, other cities or metros and rural areas were more in favor of Paxton. Of all locations noted in the poll, San Antonio was the only one to be split evenly.
Many areas here were, again, not too far divided. Of note for Paxton, his lead among Houston residents was 12%. Cornyn is a Houston resident. The incumbent senator held an even stronger lead in Austin, at 26% ahead, where Paxton has worked as attorney general since 2015.
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The Source: Information in this article comes from coefficient.org.