Texas voters head to polls Tuesday for high-stakes primary runoff elections
Texas voters will head back to the polls Tuesday for a series of high-stakes primary runoff elections, headlined by a fierce Republican battle for the U.S. Senate between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton.
High-stakes GOP Senate battle
The race pits Cornyn, who is looking to make history by positioning himself for a fifth term in office, against Paxton, a challenger seeking to shake up the state's political establishment. The winner of Tuesday's Republican runoff will advance to the November general election to face Democratic nominee James Talarico, in a race that has already sparked heavy attack ads expected to intensify over the next five months.
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Political analysts view Paxton as the front-runner heading into election day, a position bolstered by a late endorsement from former President Donald Trump.
What they're saying:
"I think it matters a little bit," Southern Methodist University political science professor Matthew Wilson said of Trump's endorsement. "Certainly Paxton would have preferred to have the endorsement earlier, but better late than never in his view. I think that it turns Paxton from a favorite, which he already was, into a pretty big favorite on election day."
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The Senate race is not the only high-profile Republican contest on the ballot. In a closely watched congressional runoff, Mayes Middleton is heavily favored against incumbent U.S. Rep. Chip Roy. Middleton, who led the field in the first round of voting, has heavily self-funded his campaign.
"Middleton definitely has the edge," Wilson said. "He finished ahead in the first round of voting. He doesn't have that much further to go in order to establish a majority. He spent a ton of money getting his message out, so I think he definitely profiles as the favorite."
The other side:
On the Democratic side, a unique congressional matchup in Texas' 33rd District features a battle of name recognition between former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and current U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson. While Allred secured a substantial lead in the first primary round, experts say low voter turnout could alter the math.
Wilson noted that a significant portion of Allred's initial support came from voters aligned with U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett. Because Crockett is no longer on the ballot, those voters may not return to the polls.
How to know which Texas Primary Runoff you're eligible to vote in
Runoff elections for the Texas primaries will be held on May 26 with early voting running from May 18-22.
"A lower turnout benefits Johnson because a lot of Allred support in the first round came from Jasmine Crockett voters who may not show up this time," Wilson said, calling African American turnout the "wild card" for Allred's chances.
Voters will also decide down-ballot races, including a Republican primary runoff for Texas Railroad Commissioner. Wilson indicated that a victory by challenger Bo French in that race could pull off the night's biggest upset, delivering a result that would be "not an altogether pleasant one for the Texas Republican establishment."
What's next:
Polling places across the state will be open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
The Source: Information in this article is from previous FOX 4 News coverage and an interview with SMU political scientist Matthew Wilson.