DALLAS - A new poll shows Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico in a dead heat for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
The poll, released Thursday by Texas Public Opinion Research, shows 37% of likely Democratic primary voters supporting Talarico and 38% supporting Crockett. Twenty-one percent of those polled said they were undecided on who to vote for in the race.
What they're saying:
"Crockett and Talarico are running neck-and-neck in the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate," Luke Warford, director of TPOR, said. "Texas Democrats are saying loud and clear that they want a candidate who puts the general election in play by both appealing to Trump voters and energizing the Democratic base."
Crockett is leading Talarico among Black voters, non-college-educated voters and middle-aged voters, while Talarico holds an edge among white voters, Latino voters and college-educated voters.
By the numbers:
Younger voters, between the ages of 18–34, are split almost evenly between the candidates, with Talarico polling at 34% compared to Crockett's 33% and 28% undecided.
Among voters aged 35–49, Crockett has an eight-point lead at 44% compared to 36% for Talarico. Crockett also holds the advantage among voters aged 50–64 with 40% compared to 37% for Talarico. Talarico leads among voters aged 65 and older, 39% to 35%.
Among female voters, Crockett has a four-point lead with 39%. Talarico leads among male voters by one point with 38%.
Crockett and Talarico are visible and seen favorably
A majority of voters say they have an opinion on Crockett and Talarico with both candidates seen as favorable by those polled.
Only 15% of those polled say they have never heard of Crockett, while 27% say the same thing about Talarico.
Both are viewed favorably by potential voters with 69% of those asked saying they view Crockett favorably compared to 8% who view her unfavorably. Talarico is seen favorably by 52% of those polled, compared to just 5% saying they view the state representative unfavorably.
In the past few weeks, 56% said they have seen or heard from Crockett and 41% said they have seen or heard from Talarico.
Supporters of both candidates believe they can win the general election
Supporters of both candidates are overwhelmingly confident that a Democrat can win the general election.
Among Crockett supporters, 40% said they are "very" convinced that she can win, and 39% are "somewhat" convinced she can win.
Thirty-six percent of Talarico supporters are "very" convinced he can win and 44% are "somewhat" convinced.
A Democrat has not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994.
"As the election draws nearer, both candidates will have to make the case to Democratic voters that they can get the job done in November," Warford said.
What voters believe it will take to win in November
The survey shows that 85% of voters believe it is important for the eventual Democratic nominee to win over those who voted for Trump.
Voters also said that working-class, Latino and young voters were the groups that Democrats most needed to win back in order to be competitive in the state.
Who has support in the Democratic primaries for governor, attorney general?
The poll also asked voters who they supported in the races for governor and attorney general.
Twenty-nine percent of voters said they supported Gina Hinojosa. Chris Bell (4%), Bobby Cole (3%) and Zach Vance (1%) also garnered some support. More than half of those asked (59%) said they were undecided.
An overwhelming proportion of voters said they were undecided in the race to represent the party for attorney general.
Seventy-eight percent said they were undecided on who they would vote for in the primary.
State Sen. Nathan Johnson garnered the most support in the primary at 10%. Joe Jaworksi and Tony Box both had single-digit support with 5% and 2% respectively.
The poll surveyed 1,290 likely Democratic voters between Jan. 14–21 with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.
The Source: Information in this article comes from Texas Public Opinion Research.