Texas school enrollment sees second-largest historic drop, falls below 5.5 million

Texas public school enrollment has fallen below 5.5 million students this year, marking the second-largest decline in the state’s recent history, according to data from the Texas Education Agency and analysis by Texas 2036.

The enrollment dip for the 2025-26 school year represents a 1.4% decrease from the previous year. It is the first year-over-year decline since the 2020-21 school year, when enrollment plummeted 2.2% during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The decline was driven largely by a sharp drop in Hispanic student enrollment and a shrinking number of children in elementary grades. Of the 76,613 total students lost across the state system, 61,781 were Hispanic. This group, which represents the largest demographic in Texas public schools, accounted for 81% of the total enrollment decline.

Regional Shifts and Demographic Trends

Dig deeper:

The impact of the enrollment decline was felt unevenly across the state's 20 Education Service Center (ESC) regions. While some areas saw total growth, others experienced contraction across nearly every major ethnic group.

2025-2026 Student Enrollment Statewide Totals by Region

2024-2025 Student Enrollment Statewide Totals by Region

Growth Hotspots:

Region 4 (Houston) and Region 10 (Richardson/Dallas): 

These major metropolitan hubs continued to see slight increases in overall numbers, though the rate of growth for White and Black student populations slowed compared to previous years. Asian student enrollment remained a consistent growth sector in these regions.

Region 13 (Austin):

Growth remained positive, bolstered by an increase in Asian and multi-racial student populations, though Hispanic enrollment showed its first signs of plateauing.

Areas of Decline:

Region 1 (Edinburg) and Region 19 (El Paso): 

These border regions saw the most significant dips, driven almost entirely by a decrease in Hispanic enrollment. In Region 1, Hispanic student numbers fell by more than 2.5%, mirroring a broader trend of declining early-grade enrollment in South Texas.

Region 11 (Fort Worth):

Unlike its neighbor Dallas, the Fort Worth region saw a notable decrease in White and Hispanic student enrollment, while Black and Asian populations saw marginal gains.

Region 20 (San Antonio): 

This region saw a downward trend across the three largest demographics: Hispanic, White, and Black students.

Elementary Pipeline "Ripple Effect"

Data also showed that the K-12 pipeline is narrowing from the bottom up. Enrollment in elementary schools (Kindergarten through 5th grade) shrunk by 46,180 students, a 2% drop that accounted for 60% of the statewide decrease.

What they're saying:

"Declines at the elementary level are especially significant because they indicate fewer students entering the pipeline," the Texas 2036 report stated, noting that the trend will likely create ripple effects for middle and high schools in the coming years.

The findings come as Texas school districts face growing pressure to adapt to shrinking populations. While the state has historically seen consistent growth, the current figures point to a changing landscape for the nation’s second-largest public education system.

What's next:

Texas 2036 indicated it will follow up with a more detailed report exploring which specific communities and campuses are feeling the impact of these declines most acutely.

TexasEducation