New polling from Texas Southern University shows three South Texas Congressional districts leaning toward the Democrats as the party looks to maintain control in two districts and win the third.
By the numbers:
The survey, conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, polled 700 likely November voters in TX-15 and TX-34, and 600 likely voters in TX-28. The margin of error was +/- 3.7% for TX-15 and TX-34, and was +/-4% for TX-28.
Texas 15th Congressional District
Democrat Bobby Pulido holds a five-point lead over Republican Monica De La Cruz, 50% to 45%. The poll found 5% of voters were undecided in the race.
Nearly half, 45%, said they viewed Pulido favorably, 34% said they viewed him unfavorably, while 21% said they did not know enough about him to form an opinion.
De La Cruz was viewed favorably by 41% of voters, while 43% viewed her unfavorably and 16% did not know enough about her to have an opinion.
Dig deeper:
The poll found that 8% of Republicans and 8% of those who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024 were planning to vote for Pulido.
Trump won TX-15 by 18 percentage points in 2024.
The break for Democrats is also reflected in the races for U.S. Senate and governor.
James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton by 8% and Gina Hinojosa is leading Greg Abbott by 3%.
Some Trump voters in TX-28 break for Democrat Henry Cuellar
By the numbers:
Voters in TX-28 are supporting Democrat Henry Cuellar over Republican Tano Tijerina, 45% to 34%. Green Party candidate Marlon Duran earned the support of 6% of likely voters.
Voters were split on their feelings for Cuellar with 41% saying they viewed him favorably and 41% saying they viewed him unfavorably.
More voters said they were unfamiliar with Tijerina (41%), than viewed him favorably (29%) or unfavorably (31%).
Big picture view:
TX-28 saw the poll's biggest defection of Republican and Trump supporters. Twenty percent of Republicans in the district and 23% of voters who voted for Trump in 2024 said they were putting their support behind Cuellar.
Trump won TX-28 by 10 percentage points in 2024.
Talarico and Hinojosa were also ahead in the poll in the district. Talarico leads Paxton by 10% and Hinojosa leads Abbott by 4%.
Gonzalez leads close race in TX-34
By the numbers:
Democrat Vicente Gonzalez (45%) leads Republican Eric Flores (42%) by 3% in a close race for TX-34. Green Party candidate Eddie Espinoza had the support of 3% of likely voters and 2% of voters were supporting Libertarian Chris Royal. Eight percent of voters were undecided in the race.
By the numbers:
TX-34 is another South Texas district that Trump carried in 2024, winning by 10%.
Two percent of those 2024 Trump voters said they were voting for the Democrat this time around, while 5% of Republicans in general said they planned to support Gonzalez.
Hinojosa leads in the district by 4% over Abbott and Talarico holds an 11 percentage point lead over Paxton.
The Source: Information in this article comes from a Barbara Jordan Public Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University survey that polled 700 likely November voters in TX-15 and TX-34, and 600 likely voters in TX-28. The margin of error was +/- 3.7% for TX-15 and TX-34, and was +/-4% for TX-28.