Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX Local)
A new poll shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate as early voting continues across Texas.
The poll was conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research between Oct. 15 and Oct. 18 and surveyed 969 likely Texas voters and has a margin of error of 3.9%.
By the numbers:
TPOR's poll found 51% of those surveyed support Talarico, a four-point lead over Paxton (47%). Libertarian Ted Brown received 2%. Talarico's lead has narrowed by one point since last month's TPOR poll and two points since August. Brown also saw his support shrink by 1%.
Friday's poll is the latest in a series of polls that show conflicting information about who is leading the race to become the next senator from Texas.
Talarico leads among independent voters
Dig deeper:
Talarico continues to have strong support among independent voters, with 66% saying they support him compared to 28% for Paxton and 6% for Brown.
The Democrat also leads Paxton with Black voters (87%-11%), Latino voters (60%-39%), women voters (54%-47%) and voters under the age of 55.
Paxton's support comes from white voters (60%-38%), men (50%-47%), voters without a college degree (50%-47%) and voters over the age of 55.
Since September, men have shifted their support from Talarico to Paxton, according to TPOR polling.
Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker
Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.
Which candidate will do more to tackle cost of living, AI and data centers?
Voters were asked which candidate would do more to improve the financial situation of Texans and which candidate they felt would do a better job handling issues related to artificial intelligence and data centers.
Those polled said they felt Talarico would do more to tackle the cost of living crisis and improve the financial situation of everyday Texans, 51% to 43%, over Paxton. Ted Brown was the choice for 3% of voters and 4% were unsure who would have the better plan.
The margin was much closer when it comes to data centers, with 47% saying they felt Talarico would handle AI and data center issues better than Paxton (43%) and Brown (3%). More voters (8%) were undecided on the best plan compared to having a plan for rising costs.
Where do they stand?
FOX Local is publishing stories each week leading up to the start of early voting in Texas on Oct. 19 about the positions of both Paxton and Talarico on a variety of issues. Here's a round up of the coverage:
- Talarico vs. Paxton: Who has the better plan to lower costs?
- Talarico vs. Paxton: Different plans for Texas’ data center boom
- Talarico vs. Paxton: Who has the better approach to healthcare affordability?
- Paxton vs. Talarico: Where they stand on the border
- Talarico vs. Paxton: How the candidates differ on schools and education
Early voting for the November general election runs through Oct. 30. Election day is Nov. 3.
The Source: Information in this article comes from a Texas Public Opinion Research poll conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 18 that surveyed 969 likely Texas voters with a margin of error of 3.9%.